ASSESSMENT OF THE SPEED OF THE EXPECTED SPREAD OF THE PESTE DES PETITS RUMINANTS (PPR) IN THE CASE OF THE INTRODUCTION INTO THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION TERRITORY
https://doi.org/10.25690/VETPAT.2021.46.88.004
Abstract
The Russian Federation is a country officially recognized by the OIE as free from peste des petits ruminants (PPR). The Russian Federation is a country officially recognized by the OIE as free from transboundary animal disease. The non-free from PPR border countries creates threat of the introduction of this infection into the Russian Federation. The aim of the study was to establish the possible rate and extent of the spread of peste des petits ruminants both between farms and within farms when the infection is introduced into the territory of the Russian Federation. To estimate the possible number of secondarily infected animals and farms, an approach based on the concept of the base rate of reproduction with exponential initial growth was used. Monte Carlo simulation was used. The results show that 22 (95 % confidence interval: 6-30) animals may be infected within 1 week after the introduction of PPR into an intact herd, while at the inter-herd level, a secondary outbreak may occur 5 (1-17) days later. The data obtained allow us to speak about the minimum required level of depopulation of 19 % of farms and vaccination of 89 % of livestock in farms of the threatened zone. The results of the study create prerequisites for the development of measures to manage this risk within the framework of maintaining the welfare status of the Russian Federation for peste des petits ruminants.
About the Authors
S. V. Shcherbinin
«Federal Center for Animal Health» «ARRIAH»
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
F. I. Korennoy
«Federal Center for Animal Health» «ARRIAH»
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
A. K. Karaulov
«Federal Center for Animal Health» «ARRIAH»
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
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Review
For citations:
Shcherbinin S.V., Korennoy F.I., Karaulov A.K. ASSESSMENT OF THE SPEED OF THE EXPECTED SPREAD OF THE PESTE DES PETITS RUMINANTS (PPR) IN THE CASE OF THE INTRODUCTION INTO THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION TERRITORY. Russian Journal of Veterinary Pathology. 2021;(3):5-9. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.25690/VETPAT.2021.46.88.004
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