Uncontrollable Mortality in Agricultural Animals in the Russian Federation: A State-Level Problem in the Context of Sanction Restrictions

Introduction. Livestock mortality is a significant socioeconomic problem not only for agricultural enterprises engaged in livestock farming but for the country as a whole. Excessive livestock mortality leads to losses of livestock products, valuable animal genetic resources, labour and financial investments, and expected profit due to the inability of the agricultural enterprises to fully complete the production cycle. At the state level, livestock mortality can entail a chain of inflationary processes, starting with the rise of livestock product prices and leading to the rise of prices in the related sectors. Such processes are highly probable, as the demand for the livestock products won’t decline, but rather increase with population growth due to essential role of livestock products in a human diet. Uncontrollable livestock mortality can cause social problems such as unemployment in livestock farming and related sectors, and serious environmental problems due to the need to dispose a large number of cadavers of dead animals. All this poses a real threat to the food security of the country.

The problem is highly relevant for the Russian Federation: reduction of beef production leads to the growth of prices for this type of meat and fall of its affordability for people, which automatically results in increased share of pork and poultry in the their diet, and can cause problems in these sectors in the event of crises similar to the one in poultry farming in 2025. On the other hand, this may require enlargement of meat and meat products’ export, which creates risks for the domestic market of the Russian Federation in case of changes in political and economic situation. Therefore, livestock mortality control is crucial for the development of agricultural enterprises and improvement of their cost-efficiency, as well as for ensuring the economic, food, and environmental security of the country in the context of sanction restrictions¹ [1]. However, despite the availability of statistical data, little attention has been paid in the scientific literature to a comprehensive analysis of the correlation between the dynamics of livestock mortality and livestock population, as well as to identifying the factors influencing excessive mortality.

The aim of the study is to evaluate the state of livestock mortality in the agricultural enterprises of the Russian Federation, identify factors leading to excessive livestock mortality, and propose measures to improve livestock mortality control and reduce socio-economic damage.

Materials and Methods. The empirical study was based on the official data of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat) for the period of 2019–2023. Monthly and annual bulletin “Livestock Population in the Farms of All Categories” served the source of information on the numbers of agricultural animals by species; the bulletin “State of Livestock Farming” served the source of information on animal mortality in the agricultural enterprises (small business entities excluded). In this study, livestock mortality is understood as the death of an animal due to the direct impact of certain factors (dangerous diseases, natural disasters, etc.) or due to euthanasia reasoned by the inability to help an animal suffering from these factors.

The research was carried out using the following economic and statistical methods: the analysis of time series of livestock population and mortality per each year in absolute values; calculation of the rates of changing (increase/decrease) of both livestock population and mortality for each animal species separately; the structural analysis to determine the mortality-to-population ratio (as a percentage), which made it possible to evaluate severity of the situation. For each animal species, the direction and fluctuation amplitude of livestock population and mortality growth rate were compared. Mortality rates exceedance over livestock population rates, divergency of trends, and increased volatility of mortality were interpreted as signs of insufficient process control.

Research Results

Dynamics of livestock population and mortality in the Russian Federation. To objectively assess the impact of livestock mortality on the state of livestock farming, it is necessary to understand the volumes of livestock farming production in the country. According to the Rosstat data for 2019–2023, there was a positive growth dynamics in the amount of produced and raised livestock and poultry, by volume (thousand tons): the largest upsurge of this indicator equal to 6.28% was observed in 2022 compared to 2021; in 2023, the increase was 2.18% compared to 2022 (Fig. 1).²

The analysis of Table 1 shows that in 2023, compared to 2022, cattle population decreased by 1.98%; cow population decrease dynamics in 2023 compared to 2022 was 2.48%; during the studied years, negative population dynamics was observed in horses, sheep and goats, and reindeer. Positive population dynamics was observed in pigs (by 6.85% in 2022 compared to 2021 and by 3.13% in 2023 compared to 2022). In 2023, there was an increase in the population of camels by 1.88%, donkeys — by 20.83%, mules and hinnies — by 75% compared to 2022.³

The analysis of Table 2 shows an increase in livestock mortality in the agricultural enterprises in 2023 compared to 2022, which was observed for all groups of agricultural animals except for cattle (the mortality in this group decreased in 2023 compared to 2022 by 4.917%). In 2023, the greatest increase of mortality was observed in the following groups of animals: camels by 73.3%; sheep and goats by 22.35%; pigs by 12.95%; poultry by 12.32%. Also, an increase of young cattle mortality should be noted in 2023 compared to 2022, especially that of reindeer calves (by 20.15%), although in previous years there was a constant decrease in mortality. The mortality in lambs and goatlings also increased significantly in 2023 — by 13.18%. A positive trend for steady decline of mortality was observed in foals from 2019 to 2023, although, in adult horses, the mortality was observed to increase in 2023 by 2.6%. It should be noted that in 2022, the mortality had decreased in most animal groups, whereas in 2023, on the contrary, it increased significantly.⁴

We will analyse the ratio of the livestock mortality to population for the period of 2019–2023 (Figures 2–9).

Figure 2 shows the proportion of mortality to the total number of livestock population in various animal groups during 2019–2023. The analysis shows that for such groups of agricultural animals as “camels”, “horses”, and “cows”, the proportion of mortality didn’t not exceed 2%, which means the damage from mortality was not critical. A positive trend for the decrease in the values of this indicator in the “cows” and “horses” groups in 2023 compared to previous years is observed.

The proportion of mortality to the total number of livestock population in the “cattle” and “sheep and goats” groups ranged from 2–4% in the studied period.

The agricultural enterprises may suffer significant damage in relation with the “reindeer” group, due to fluctuation of the mortality proportion in this group during the studied period in the range from 13.24% in 2022 to 19.03% in 2019. A positive trend to note is the decrease of the mortality proportion to the total population in 2022–2023 compared to 2019– 021.

The most critical situation is observed in the “pigs” group: proportion of pig mortality to their total population ranged within very high values, moreover, there was a negative trend for mortality increase from 32.17% in 2019 to 43.07% in 2023. Bearing in mind that pigs are the most numerous group in the total population of agricultural animals, and due to pork being a highly demanded product on the food market, such high mortality numbers indicate significant damage to both the agricultural enterprises and the state as a whole.^{5, 6}

Another negative trend in livestock farming is the exceedance of livestock mortality increase rate over the population growth rate. This situation makes us to forecast further increase in mortality numbers, and decline in livestock population numbers as well as in the potential for herd reproduction. Figures 3–9 illustrate the correlation between the rates of changing the mortality and population numbers in each group of agricultural animals under study.

According to Fig. 3, the rate of changing cattle population is insignificant, ranging from 0.2% in 2019 to -1.98% in 2023. There is a large gap between the rate of changing cattle population and the rate of changing its mortality, which may indicate the uncontrollability of cattle mortality process^{7, 8}. The situation is aggravated by the fact that, with the exception of 2023, the increase of cattle mortality is taking place against the background of the decrease of its population. This could lead to serious problems in this group of animals and contribute to a sharp decline in the amount of beef and veal produced as well as milk and dairy products, which are included in the consumer basket and have a significant share in the structure of food products.

Figure 4 clearly confirms the fact that in cows the fluctuation amplitudes in the rate of changing the mortality are much wider than that in the rate of changing the population. Moreover, according to Rosstat data, the cattle and small ruminant population continues to decline: in the first half of 2025, cattle population decreased by 4.1% compared to the same period of 2024, and cow population decreased by 3.7%^{9, 10, 11}

According to Fig. 5, throughout the entire period, except for 2022, the rate of mortality growth in pigs exceeded significantly the rate of their population growth. It is also worth noting that the sharper amplitude in the rate of changing pig mortality compared to the rate of changing pig population. This is especially dangerous due to pig mortality proportion reaching more than 40% in 2023 relative to pig population, and pigs are the most numerous group of agricultural animals.^{12, 13}

The analysis of Fig. 6 shows the increase in the mortality of sheep and goats against the background of their livestock population decrease registered in 2020, 2021, and 2023. Moreover, the rate of changing the mortality in sheep and goats had a greater amplitude than the rate of changing the livestock population. ^{14, 15}

The analysis of Fig. 7 also shows a significant amplitude in the rate of changing mortality in horses compared to the rate of changing their population^{16, 17}. However, it is necessary to take into account that in this group of animals the population numbers are significantly greater than the mortality, therefore, the changes in mortality will be more noticeable and will have greater amplitude compared to the population numbers.

The dynamics in the rate of changing mortality in reindeer in the agricultural enterprises of the Russian Federation during the studied period was unstable (Fig. 8): in 2022, a sharp decrease in mortality rate is observed compared to 2021 (up to -14.09%); and already in 2023, compared to 2022, there was a significant increase in mortality rate in this group of animals.¹⁸ The rate of changing reindeer population is slower and more predictable. It should be noted that the proportion of reindeer mortality relative to the total livestock population is significant: for example, over the years studied, it reached 19.03% in 2019 and equalled to 14.93% in 2023¹⁹. The “reindeer” group has a small share in the total population of all agricultural animals, therefore, an increase of mortality in this group could lead to the reduction of the reproduction capacity of the reindeer herd.

In the “camels” group (Fig. 9), significant fluctuations in the rate of changing mortality are observed, which does not correspond to the directions in which changing of camel population was going in most of the studied years ^{20, 21}.

Key Factors Affecting the Increase of Livestock Mortality. The authors have identified the factors affecting animal mortality in the agricultural enterprises of the Russian Federation and the corresponding causes (Table 3).

The analysis of the factors makes it possible to summarise and identify the problems that underly these situations. Firstly, meat and dairy production often proves to be unprofitable for various reasons leading to reduction of investments in this subsector and, subsequently, to reduction of milking and breeding herds. On the other hand, the resulting financial problems can lead to mass livestock mortality, as occurred in the poultry industry in July 2025: some farms were unable to maintain operations due to financial debts, which had led to the death of birds. The hidden costs resulting from animal mortality must also be taken into account: disposal costs, reduced production, deterioration of milk and meat quality, and the spread of infections.

Secondly, a neglectful attitude toward livestock welfare and pasture quality is currently observed, which, of course, reduces livestock productivity and increases uncontrolled disease incidence. Despite the measures taken, the epizootic situation in Russia remains tense. In early 2025, Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) reported new cases of rabies and bovine leukemia.²² The incidence of anthrax in 2025–2026 is expected to depend on the scale of vaccination and monitoring.

Thirdly, weakening of state regulation of these processes at both the federal, regional, and local levels, as well as the lack of transparent and efficient state policy, hinders the development of livestock farming sector and does not foster solution of the existing problems.

Discussion and Conclusion. Tracking the causes and trends of livestock mortality at the local and national levels is essential for planning, monitoring, and developing programs aimed at reducing mortality in agricultural animals. The study revealed a persistent negative trend developed in the Russian Federation over the period of 2019–2023, characterized by mortality growth rates exceeding population growth rates in most animal species, high volatility in mortality numbers, and the presence of critical aspects in pig and reindeer farming.

Particular attention should be paid to the decline in cattle population (including cows), one of the most significant and numerous groups, as well as to decline in the populations of horses, reindeer, sheep, and goats. Although currently the proportion of mortality does not exceed 2% (in camels, horses, and cows), which is considered acceptable, it should still be kept under control and measures developed to prevent livestock mortality growth in the future. In the “sheep and goat” group, the proportion of mortality to the total population is approaching 4% and has the trend for rising. The growth of the mortality proportion in camels in 2023 is also a concern: management of the agricultural enterprises should investigate the causes underlying this situation and take measures to prevent further increase of this indicator.

High livestock mortality level poses a threat not only due to direct economic losses but also due to reducing the herd reproduction potential. This is particularly valid for reindeer mortality, which reached 19.0%, and even with a decline to 14.9% in 2023, the situation remains tense. A critical situation has also developed in pig farming, where the proportion of mortality relative to population increased from 32.2% in 2019 to 43.1% in 2023. It is recommended to develop the state programs aimed at reducing pig mortality, and strictly control the compliance with the disciplinary and technological requirements for pig farming in the agricultural enterprises, as well as to develop the preventive measures to reduce animal mortality [3][4].

Thus, in the studied period, across all groups of studied agricultural animals, significant fluctuations in the rate and direction of changing the mortality were observed, which indicates uncontrollability of this process and the lack of systemic management of this process in the agricultural enterprises. Uncontrollable livestock mortality can cause a cascade effect, with losses in agricultural industry entailing increased losses in related and dependent sectors of the country’s economy. The state must not simply initiate some actions, but rather formulate a clear action plan, propose the tools and appoint the responsible bodies to prevent the catastrophic consequences of the uncontrollable processes in this area. To overcome these challenges, including achievement of import independence in technologies and means of production, as well as overcoming deficit of human recourses, the national project “Technological Support for Food Security” is being implemented since this year. It is stipulated that by 2030, Russia should provide 72% of its needs in improved breeding stock of dairy cattle and 10% — in improved breeding stock of poultry.

To complement the initiatives mentioned, we propose a set of practical measures (Table 3), including planning the actions in the face of mortality threat, developing the livestock insurance system, strengthening the state support in case of significant losses, improving the qualifications of workers, expanding and detailing statistical record on mortality with spatial and time reference, as well as intensifying scientific research in the field of veterinary medicine and livestock farming economics.

Consistent and ongoing implementation of these measures will ensure control over livestock mortality in agricultural enterprises, improve the predictability of livestock population dynamics, and eventually reduce the socio-economic damage to the state by strengthening the food security of the Russian Federation.